Matchday 19 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Burnley 1–3 Newcastle: lucky or expected?
Newcastle beat Burnley 3–1, and the goals lean Newcastle’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Burnley, 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Burnley were expected to score 1.3 here and Newcastle 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Burnley | 1 |
 Newcastle United | 3 |
What the goals say
Luck index +39 Newcastle lucky · −39 Burnley
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Burnley win 3, 2 end level, Newcastle win 5.
- 1 BUR 2 NEW 1
- 2 BUR 2 NEW 1
- 3 BUR 6 NEW 3
- 4 BUR 0 NEW 0
- 5 BUR 1 NEW 1
- 6 BUR 1 NEW 4
- 7 BUR 0 NEW 2
- 8 BUR 0 NEW 2
- 9 BUR 0 NEW 1
- 10 BUR 2 NEW 3
The goals
Burnley’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 2' | Joelinton (Newcastle) | 0–1 | +24% Newcastle |
| 2. 7' | Yoane Wissa (Newcastle) | 0–2 | +18% Newcastle |
| 3. 23' | Josh Laurent (Burnley) | 1–2 | +18% Burnley |
| 90+3' | Bruno Guimaraes (Newcastle) | 1–3 |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say. Newcastle win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- West Ham 2–2 Brighton Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Forest 0–2 Everton Dec 30, 2025 · replay 44% for Everton
- Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Man United 1–1 Wolves Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa Dec 30, 2025 · replay 75% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 0–0 Leeds Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Sunderland 0–0 Man City Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws