Matchday 19 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
Man United 1–1 Wolves: lucky or expected?
Man United and Wolves drew 1–1. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, Man United win 8 of 10, Wolves 0, and 2 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, Man United were expected to score 2.3 here and Wolves 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 |
What the goals say
Luck index −34 Man United unlucky for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 8, 2 end level, Wolves win 0.
- 1 MUN 2 WOL 1
- 2 MUN 3 WOL 2
- 3 MUN 1 WOL 0
- 4 MUN 2 WOL 0
- 5 MUN 2 WOL 0
- 6 MUN 3 WOL 0
- 7 MUN 4 WOL 0
- 8 MUN 5 WOL 0
- 9 MUN 2 WOL 2
- 10 MUN 1 WOL 1
The goals
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 27' | Joshua Zirkzee (Man United) | 1–0 | +25% Man United |
| 2. 45' | Ladislav Krejci (Wolves) | 1–1 | +29% Wolves |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
- Burnley 1–3 Newcastle Dec 30, 2025 · replay 61% for Newcastle
- West Ham 2–2 Brighton Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Forest 0–2 Everton Dec 30, 2025 · replay 44% for Everton
- Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa Dec 30, 2025 · replay 75% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 0–0 Leeds Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Sunderland 0–0 Man City Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws