Matchday 19 · Premier League 2025-26 · December 30, 2025
Goals only: this source has no shots, so the replay comes from each side's goals over the season.
West Ham 2–2 Brighton: lucky or expected?
West Ham and Brighton drew 2–2. Replayed from both teams’ goals this season, West Ham win 3 of 10, Brighton 4, and 3 end level. Rated on this season’s goals, West Ham were expected to score 1.2 here and Brighton 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals |
|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 |
 Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 |
What the goals say
Luck index +7 West Ham about even for the draw
Our source has this match’s goals but not its shots, so it is replayed from what each side’s goals over the season say: both teams rated on every goal scored and conceded, and the match played again 4,000 times from those ratings. How often does this result come out? How the goals-only replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 3, 3 end level, Brighton win 4.
- 1 WHU 1 BHA 0
- 2 WHU 2 BHA 1
- 3 WHU 3 BHA 0
- 4 WHU 0 BHA 0
- 5 WHU 3 BHA 3
- 6 WHU 2 BHA 2
- 7 WHU 0 BHA 3
- 8 WHU 0 BHA 2
- 9 WHU 1 BHA 2
- 10 WHU 2 BHA 3
The goals
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the goals, listed below.
| Minute | Goal | Score | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. 10' | Jarrod Bowen (West Ham) | 1–0 | +23% West Ham |
| 2. 32' | Danny Welbeck (Brighton, penalty) | 1–1 | +26% Brighton |
| 3. 45+4' | Lucas Paqueta (West Ham, penalty) | 2–1 | +30% West Ham |
| 4. 61' | Joel Veltman (Brighton) | 2–2 | +34% Brighton |
Win chance: the scoring side’s chance of winning the moment before the goal against the moment after it, from the score and the minutes left. A draw counts half.
About these numbers
Scores and goals from openfootball (public domain). It has no shots, so there is no expected goals for this match and no finishing luck: the replay, the in-game win probability and the luck index are our own models, built from the season’s goals alone (methodology and validation). The luck index is how far the result was from what the goals say.
More from matchday 19, 2025-26
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- Forest 0–2 Everton Dec 30, 2025 · replay 44% for Everton
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- Man United 1–1 Wolves Dec 30, 2025 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa Dec 30, 2025 · replay 75% for Arsenal
- Liverpool 0–0 Leeds Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–1 Fulham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Sunderland 0–0 Man City Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Brentford 0–0 Tottenham Jan 1, 2026 · drawn; replay 26% draws