Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · June 29, 2024
Germany 2–0 Denmark: who deserved to win?
Germany beat Denmark 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Germany go through 8 times in 10. Germany made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.1.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +20 Germany about even · −20 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Germany win 7, 2 end level, Denmark win 1.
- 1 GER 1 DEN 0
- 2 GER 2 DEN 1
- 3 GER 4 DEN 2
- 4 GER 4 DEN 2
- 5 GER 4 DEN 1
- 6 GER 3 DEN 0
- 7 GER 4 DEN 0
- 8 GER 2 DEN 2
- 9 GER 3 DEN 3
- 10 GER 0 DEN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Germany win 70%, 16% end level, Denmark win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Germany by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Germany by 3+ | 28.3% |
| Germany by 2 | 20.2% |
| Germany by 1 | 21.6% |
| Draw | 16.1% |
| Denmark by 1 | 9.3% |
| Denmark by 2 | 3.2% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Germany | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 2.23 | −0.23 |
 Denmark | 10 | 0 | 1.07 | −1.07 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 49' | Rasmus Winther Højlund didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 52' | Kai Havertz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 58' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 67' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shot | 0.26 |
When it happened
Germany’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% GER |
| 2 | 23' | Joakim Mæhle didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% GER |
| 3 | 30' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +2% GER |
| 4 | 41' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% DEN |
| 5 | 49' | Rasmus Winther Højlund didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +15% GER |
| 6 | 52' | Kai Havertz scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% GER |
| 7 | 58' | Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +5% DEN |
| 8 | 67' | Jamal Musiala scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% GER |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Germany go through in 80% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2024
- Switzerland 2–0 Italy Jun 29, 2024 · replay 61% for Switzerland
- Spain 4–1 Georgia Jun 30, 2024 · replay 99% for Spain
- England 2–1 Slovakia Jun 30, 2024 · AET · replay 50% for England
- France 1–0 Belgium Jul 1, 2024 · replay 78% for France
- Portugal 0–0 Slovenia Jul 1, 2024 · pens · replay 62% for Portugal
- Austria 1–2 Turkey Jul 2, 2024 · replay 26% for Turkey
- Romania 0–3 Netherlands Jul 2, 2024 · replay 97% for Netherlands