luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · July 1, 2024 · pens

Portugal 0–0 Slovenia: who deserved to win?

Portugal went through on penalties after 0–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal go through 6 times in 10. Portugal made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.7.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
Portugal 0 1.72
Slovenia 0 0.72

July 1, 2024 · Deutsche Bank Park · Referee: Daniele Orsato

Luck index +38 Portugal lucky · −38 Slovenia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Portugal win 4, 4 end level, Slovenia win 2.

  1. 1 POR 1 SVN 0
  2. 2 POR 1 SVN 0
  3. 3 POR 2 SVN 0
  4. 4 POR 3 SVN 0
  5. 5 POR 1 SVN 1
  6. 6 POR 0 SVN 0
  7. 7 POR 0 SVN 0
  8. 8 POR 1 SVN 1
  9. 9 POR 0 SVN 1
  10. 10 POR 0 SVN 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Portugal win 40%, 41% end level, Slovenia win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Portugal by 3+3.0%
Portugal by 211.0%
Portugal by 126.1%
Draw41.3%
Slovenia by 115.5%
Slovenia by 22.7%
Slovenia by 3+0.4%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Portugal20 (1 pen)01.72−1.72
Slovenia1000.72−0.72

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
104'Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penalty0.78

When it happened

Portugal’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Portugal was ahead in it, below while Slovenia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 54' Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance +3% SVN
2 56' Vitor Machado Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% SVN
3 60' Benjamin Šeško didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance +9% POR
4 88' Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +5% SVN
5 ET 99' Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% SVN
6 ET 104' Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +32% SVN
7 ET 114' Benjamin Šeško didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance +8% POR
8 Pens 120' Portugal won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% POR

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 0–0. Portugal go through in 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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