Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · June 30, 2024 · AET
England 2–1 Slovakia: who deserved to win?
England beat Slovakia 2–1 after extra time, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: England go through 5 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.6).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +50 England lucky · −50 Slovakia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. England win 3, 3 end level, Slovakia win 4.
- 1 ENG 1 SVK 0
- 2 ENG 1 SVK 0
- 3 ENG 3 SVK 1
- 4 ENG 1 SVK 1
- 5 ENG 1 SVK 1
- 6 ENG 0 SVK 0
- 7 ENG 1 SVK 3
- 8 ENG 1 SVK 2
- 9 ENG 0 SVK 1
- 10 ENG 0 SVK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
England win 33%, 32% end level, Slovakia win 35%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| England by 3+ | 2.9% |
| England by 2 | 7.9% |
| England by 1 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 23.5% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 8.4% |
| Slovakia by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 England | 16 | 2 | 1.59 | +0.41 |
 Slovakia | 13 | 1 | 1.55 | −0.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 24' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shot | 0.53 |
| 90' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.50 |
| 94' | Jude Bellingham scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 104' | Peter Pekarík didn’t score from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
England’s chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Ivan Schranz scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +13% SVK |
| 2 | 51' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% SVK |
| 3 | 77' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +7% SVK |
| 4 | 80' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SVK |
| 5 | ET 90' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +18% ENG |
| 6 | 94' | Jude Bellingham scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +45% ENG |
| 7 | ET 104' | Peter Pekarík didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +21% ENG |
| 8 | ET 119' | Milan Škriniar didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% ENG |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to extra time: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. England go through in 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2024
- Germany 2–0 Denmark Jun 29, 2024 · replay 80% for Germany
- Switzerland 2–0 Italy Jun 29, 2024 · replay 61% for Switzerland
- Spain 4–1 Georgia Jun 30, 2024 · replay 99% for Spain
- France 1–0 Belgium Jul 1, 2024 · replay 78% for France
- Portugal 0–0 Slovenia Jul 1, 2024 · pens · replay 62% for Portugal
- Austria 1–2 Turkey Jul 2, 2024 · replay 26% for Turkey
- Romania 0–3 Netherlands Jul 2, 2024 · replay 97% for Netherlands