Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · July 2, 2024
Austria 1–2 Turkey: who deserved to win?
Turkey beat Austria 2–1, but the replays send Austria through 7 times in 10. Austria made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.9.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +74 Turkey very lucky · −74 Austria
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Austria win 6, 2 end level, Turkey win 2.
- 1 AUT 2 TUR 1
- 2 AUT 2 TUR 1
- 3 AUT 3 TUR 1
- 4 AUT 3 TUR 1
- 5 AUT 6 TUR 3
- 6 AUT 4 TUR 0
- 7 AUT 3 TUR 3
- 8 AUT 2 TUR 2
- 9 AUT 0 TUR 2
- 10 AUT 1 TUR 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Austria win 60%, 21% end level, Turkey win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Turkey by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Austria by 3+ | 18.4% |
| Austria by 2 | 17.0% |
| Austria by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 20.9% |
| Turkey by 1 | 12.6% |
| Turkey by 2 | 5.0% |
| Turkey by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Austria | 21 | 1 | 2.49 | −1.49 |
 Turkey | 6 | 2 | 0.88 | +1.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Merih Demiral scored from a shot | 0.46 |
| 58' | Merih Demiral scored from a shot | 0.15 |
| 65' | Michael Gregoritsch scored from a shot | 0.58 |
When it happened
Austria’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Merih Demiral scored from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +13% TUR |
| 2 | 45' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% TUR |
| 3 | 50' | Marko Arnautović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +10% TUR |
| 4 | 58' | Merih Demiral scored from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +10% TUR |
| 5 | 65' | Michael Gregoritsch scored from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +5% AUT |
| 6 | 83' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +11% TUR |
| 7 | 90' | Michael Gregoritsch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% TUR |
| 8 | 94' | Christoph Baumgartner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +12% TUR |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Turkey go through in 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2024
- Germany 2–0 Denmark Jun 29, 2024 · replay 80% for Germany
- Switzerland 2–0 Italy Jun 29, 2024 · replay 61% for Switzerland
- Spain 4–1 Georgia Jun 30, 2024 · replay 99% for Spain
- England 2–1 Slovakia Jun 30, 2024 · AET · replay 50% for England
- France 1–0 Belgium Jul 1, 2024 · replay 78% for France
- Portugal 0–0 Slovenia Jul 1, 2024 · pens · replay 62% for Portugal
- Romania 0–3 Netherlands Jul 2, 2024 · replay 97% for Netherlands