Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · July 1, 2024
France 1–0 Belgium: who deserved to win?
France beat Belgium 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, France go through 8 times in 10. France made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped France.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +22 France about even · −22 Belgium
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 6, 3 end level, Belgium win 1.
- 1 FRA 1 BEL 0
- 2 FRA 1 BEL 0
- 3 FRA 1 BEL 0
- 4 FRA 2 BEL 0
- 5 FRA 2 BEL 0
- 6 FRA 4 BEL 1
- 7 FRA 0 BEL 0
- 8 FRA 2 BEL 2
- 9 FRA 0 BEL 0
- 10 FRA 0 BEL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 59%, 30% end level, Belgium win 11%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 9.9% |
| France by 2 | 18.7% |
| France by 1 | 30.4% |
| Draw | 30.0% |
| Belgium by 1 | 9.2% |
| Belgium by 2 | 1.5% |
| Belgium by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 19 | 0 | 1.26 | −1.26 |
 Belgium | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | −0.36 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40' | Marcus Thuram didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% BEL |
| 2 | 49' | Marcus Thuram didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% BEL |
| 3 | 55' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% BEL |
| 4 | 60' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% FRA |
| 5 | 77' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BEL |
| 6 | 82' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% FRA |
| 7 | 84' | Randal Kolo Muani didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% BEL |
| 8 | 84' | Own goal by nan, for FranceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +44% FRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2024
- Germany 2–0 Denmark Jun 29, 2024 · replay 80% for Germany
- Switzerland 2–0 Italy Jun 29, 2024 · replay 61% for Switzerland
- Spain 4–1 Georgia Jun 30, 2024 · replay 99% for Spain
- England 2–1 Slovakia Jun 30, 2024 · AET · replay 50% for England
- Portugal 0–0 Slovenia Jul 1, 2024 · pens · replay 62% for Portugal
- Austria 1–2 Turkey Jul 2, 2024 · replay 26% for Turkey
- Romania 0–3 Netherlands Jul 2, 2024 · replay 97% for Netherlands