luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · June 30, 2024

Spain 4–1 Georgia: who deserved to win?

Spain beat Georgia 4–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Spain go through 10 times in 10. Spain made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.1. An own goal helped Georgia.

Full time

GoalsxG
Spain 4 2.76
Georgia 1 0.11

June 30, 2024 · RheinEnergieStadion · Referee: François Letexier

Luck index +2 Spain about even · −2 Georgia

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Spain win 9, 0 end level, Georgia win 1.

  1. 1 ESP 2 GEO 1
  2. 2 ESP 2 GEO 0
  3. 3 ESP 2 GEO 0
  4. 4 ESP 3 GEO 0
  5. 5 ESP 3 GEO 0
  6. 6 ESP 4 GEO 0
  7. 7 ESP 5 GEO 0
  8. 8 ESP 5 GEO 0
  9. 9 ESP 7 GEO 0
  10. 10 ESP 1 GEO 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Spain win 95%, 5% end level, Georgia win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Spain by 3.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Spain by 3+63.8%
Spain by 218.2%
Spain by 112.8%
Draw4.5%
Georgia by 10.6%
Georgia by 20.1%
Georgia by 3+0.0%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Spain3542.76+1.24
Georgia400.11−0.11

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
38'Rodrigo Hernández Cascante scored from a shot0.07
50'Fabián Ruiz Peña scored from a shot0.30
74'Nicholas Williams Arthuer scored from a shot0.21
82'Daniel Olmo Carvajal scored from a shot0.13

When it happened

Spain’s chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Georgia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 4' Pedro González López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +5% GEO
2 17' Own goal by nan, for GeorgiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +24% GEO
3 38' The game turned hereRodrigo Hernández Cascante scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +27% ESP
4 45' Fabián Ruiz Peña didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% GEO
5 50' Lamine Yamal Nasraoui Ebana didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance +3% GEO
6 50' Fabián Ruiz Peña scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance +23% ESP
7 67' Heorhii Tsitaishvili didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% ESP
8 74' Nicholas Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +6% ESP

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Spain go through in 99% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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