luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · July 2, 2024

Romania 0–3 Netherlands: who deserved to win?

Netherlands beat Romania 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Netherlands go through 10 times in 10. Netherlands made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.3.

Full time

GoalsxG
Romania 0 0.27
Netherlands 3 2.63

July 2, 2024 · Allianz Arena · Referee: Felix Zwayer

Luck index +3 Netherlands about even · −3 Romania

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Romania win 0, 1 ends level, Netherlands win 9.

  1. 1 ROU 1 NED 1
  2. 2 ROU 0 NED 7
  3. 3 ROU 0 NED 5
  4. 4 ROU 2 NED 6
  5. 5 ROU 0 NED 4
  6. 6 ROU 0 NED 3
  7. 7 ROU 0 NED 3
  8. 8 ROU 1 NED 3
  9. 9 ROU 1 NED 3
  10. 10 ROU 0 NED 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Romania win 2%, 6% end level, Netherlands win 93%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 3.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Romania by 3+0.0%
Romania by 20.1%
Romania by 11.4%
Draw6.0%
Netherlands by 113.8%
Netherlands by 219.5%
Netherlands by 3+59.2%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Romania500.27−0.27
Netherlands2432.63+0.37

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
19'Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shot0.05
53'Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shot0.31
82'Donyell Malen scored from a shot0.40
92'Donyell Malen scored from a shot0.35

When it happened

Romania’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Romania was ahead in it, below while Netherlands was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 16' Stefan de Vrij didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance +2% ROU
2 19' Cody Mathès Gakpo scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +25% NED
3 23' Dennis Man didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +3% NED
4 43' Xavi Simons didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +2% ROU
5 49' Donyell Malen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +2% ROU
6 53' Donyell Malen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +3% ROU
7 53' Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance +4% ROU
8 82' Donyell Malen scored from a shotFinishing · 40% chance +3% NED

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands go through in 97% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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