luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Round of 16 · Euro 2024 · June 29, 2024

Switzerland 2–0 Italy: who deserved to win?

Switzerland beat Italy 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Switzerland go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.7).

Full time

GoalsxG
Switzerland 2 0.78
Italy 0 0.73

June 29, 2024 · Olympiastadion Berlin · Referee: Szymon Marciniak

Luck index +39 Switzerland lucky · −39 Italy

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Switzerland win 4, 4 end level, Italy win 2.

  1. 1 SUI 1 ITA 0
  2. 2 SUI 2 ITA 1
  3. 3 SUI 1 ITA 0
  4. 4 SUI 2 ITA 0
  5. 5 SUI 0 ITA 0
  6. 6 SUI 0 ITA 0
  7. 7 SUI 0 ITA 0
  8. 8 SUI 1 ITA 1
  9. 9 SUI 0 ITA 1
  10. 10 SUI 1 ITA 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Switzerland win 43%, 36% end level, Italy win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Switzerland by 2.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Switzerland by 3+4.2%
Switzerland by 212.4%
Switzerland by 125.9%
Draw36.3%
Italy by 116.7%
Italy by 23.6%
Italy by 3+0.8%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Switzerland1620.78+1.22
Italy1100.73−0.73

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
36'Remo Freuler scored from a shot0.14
45'Ruben Vargas scored from a shot0.04
73'Gianluca Scamacca didn’t score from a shot0.31

When it happened

Switzerland’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Switzerland was ahead in it, below while Italy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' Dan Ndoye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% ITA
2 23' Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +5% ITA
3 23' Dan Ndoye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% ITA
4 25' Federico Chiesa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% SUI
5 36' Remo Freuler scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +25% SUI
6 45' Ruben Vargas scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +14% SUI
7 73' Mattia Zaccagni didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance +1% SUI
8 73' Gianluca Scamacca didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance +3% SUI

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Switzerland go through in 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).

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