Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · June 30, 2018
France 4–3 Argentina: who deserved to win?
France beat Argentina 4–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, France go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.6 expected goals to 1.4).
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +37 France lucky · −37 Argentina
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. France win 5, 2 end level, Argentina win 3.
- 1 FRA 3 ARG 2
- 2 FRA 2 ARG 1
- 3 FRA 5 ARG 3
- 4 FRA 2 ARG 0
- 5 FRA 4 ARG 1
- 6 FRA 0 ARG 0
- 7 FRA 2 ARG 2
- 8 FRA 2 ARG 4
- 9 FRA 1 ARG 2
- 10 FRA 0 ARG 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
France win 51%, 23% end level, Argentina win 26%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| France by 3+ | 12.5% |
| France by 2 | 16.7% |
| France by 1 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 22.7% |
| Argentina by 1 | 15.8% |
| Argentina by 2 | 6.9% |
| Argentina by 3+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 France | 9 (1 pen) | 4 | 1.64 | +2.36 |
 Argentina | 12 | 3 | 1.45 | +1.55 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 40' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 47' | Gabriel Iván Mercado scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 56' | Benjamin Pavard scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 63' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 67' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 92' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 94' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
France’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% FRA |
| 2 | 40' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +29% ARG |
| 3 | 47' | Lionel Andrés Messi Cuccittini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceGabriel Iván Mercado scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +22% ARG |
| 4 | 55' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% ARG |
| 5 | 56' | The game turned hereBenjamin Pavard scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +33% FRA |
| 6 | 63' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +32% FRA |
| 7 | 67' | Kylian Mbappé Lottin scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +8% FRA |
| 8 | 94' | Ángel Fabián Di María Hernández didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +16% FRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France go through in 63% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- Uruguay 2–1 Portugal Jun 30, 2018 · replay 38% for Uruguay
- Croatia 1–1 Denmark Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 69% for Croatia
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Belgium 3–2 Japan Jul 2, 2018 · replay 87% for Belgium
- Brazil 2–0 Mexico Jul 2, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England
- Sweden 1–0 Switzerland Jul 3, 2018 · replay 64% for Sweden