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World Cup Final · 2026

Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · July 1, 2018 · pens

Spain 1–1 Russia: who deserved to win?

Russia went through on penalties after 1–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: Russia go through 6 times in 10. The chances were close to even (1.4 expected goals to 1.4). An own goal helped Spain.

Full time · won on penalties

GoalsxG
Spain 1 1.44
Russia 1 1.41

July 1, 2018 · Stadion Luzhniki · Referee: Björn Kuipers

Luck index +44 Russia lucky · −44 Spain

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Spain win 3, 3 end level, Russia win 4.

  1. 1 ESP 1 RUS 0
  2. 2 ESP 2 RUS 1
  3. 3 ESP 3 RUS 1
  4. 4 ESP 0 RUS 0
  5. 5 ESP 1 RUS 1
  6. 6 ESP 0 RUS 0
  7. 7 ESP 1 RUS 3
  8. 8 ESP 0 RUS 2
  9. 9 ESP 0 RUS 1
  10. 10 ESP 0 RUS 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Spain win 30%, 30% end level, Russia win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Spain by 3+2.3%
Spain by 28.1%
Spain by 119.8%
Draw30.3%
Russia by 123.5%
Russia by 211.1%
Russia by 3+4.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Spain2401.44−1.44
Russia8 (1 pen)11.41−0.41

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
40'Artem Dzyuba scored from a penalty0.78

When it happened

Spain’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Russia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 11' Own goal by nan, for SpainOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +23% ESP
2 40' Artem Dzyuba scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance +6% RUS
3 59' David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance +6% RUS
4 92' Fyodor Smolov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceDenis Cheryshev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance +13% ESP
5 ET 108' Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +4% RUS
6 ET 116' Aleksandr Erokhin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +7% ESP
7 Pens 120' Russia won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +50% RUS
8 ET 120' Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +4% RUS

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Russia go through in 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All round of 16 matches, 2018 · Spain · Russia

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