Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · July 1, 2018 · pens
Croatia 1–1 Denmark: who deserved to win?
Croatia went through on penalties after 1–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Croatia go through 7 times in 10. Croatia made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +31 Croatia lucky · −31 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Croatia win 5, 3 end level, Denmark win 2.
- 1 CRO 1 DEN 0
- 2 CRO 2 DEN 1
- 3 CRO 1 DEN 0
- 4 CRO 3 DEN 1
- 5 CRO 3 DEN 0
- 6 CRO 0 DEN 0
- 7 CRO 1 DEN 1
- 8 CRO 1 DEN 1
- 9 CRO 0 DEN 2
- 10 CRO 1 DEN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Croatia win 52%, 31% end level, Denmark win 18%. The line is what actually happened: Draw after 90 minutes.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Croatia by 3+ | 8.5% |
| Croatia by 2 | 15.2% |
| Croatia by 1 | 27.9% |
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Denmark by 1 | 13.7% |
| Denmark by 2 | 3.4% |
| Denmark by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Croatia | 21 (1 pen) | 1 | 2.17 | −1.17 |
 Denmark | 14 | 1 | 0.70 | +0.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Mathias Jørgensen Jatta scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 3' | Mario Mandžukić scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 115' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Croatia’s chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Mathias Jørgensen Jatta scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +20% DEN |
| 2 | 3' | Mario Mandžukić scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +17% CRO |
| 3 | 26' | Martin Braithwaite Christensen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% CRO |
| 4 | 28' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% DEN |
| 5 | 38' | Dejan Lovren didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +5% DEN |
| 6 | 83' | Ivan Perišić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% DEN |
| 7 | ET 115' | Luka Modrić didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +37% DEN |
| 8 | Pens 120' | Croatia won the penalty shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +50% CRO |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). This tie went to penalties: after 90 minutes it stood 1–1. Croatia go through in 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- France 4–3 Argentina Jun 30, 2018 · replay 63% for France
- Uruguay 2–1 Portugal Jun 30, 2018 · replay 38% for Uruguay
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Belgium 3–2 Japan Jul 2, 2018 · replay 87% for Belgium
- Brazil 2–0 Mexico Jul 2, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England
- Sweden 1–0 Switzerland Jul 3, 2018 · replay 64% for Sweden