Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · July 2, 2018
Belgium 3–2 Japan: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Japan 3–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Belgium go through 9 times in 10. Belgium made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.7.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +13 Belgium about even · −13 Japan
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Belgium win 8, 1 ends level, Japan win 1.
- 1 BEL 1 JPN 0
- 2 BEL 3 JPN 2
- 3 BEL 3 JPN 1
- 4 BEL 2 JPN 0
- 5 BEL 5 JPN 2
- 6 BEL 3 JPN 0
- 7 BEL 5 JPN 1
- 8 BEL 5 JPN 0
- 9 BEL 1 JPN 1
- 10 BEL 0 JPN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 77%, 14% end level, Japan win 9%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 35.2% |
| Belgium by 2 | 21.3% |
| Belgium by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 14.0% |
| Japan by 1 | 5.7% |
| Japan by 2 | 2.4% |
| Japan by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 28 | 3 | 2.92 | +0.08 |
 Japan | 12 | 2 | 0.69 | +1.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 47' | Genki Haraguchi scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 51' | Takashi Inui scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 68' | Jan Vertonghen scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 73' | Marouane Fellaini-Bakkioui scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 93' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shot | 0.26 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +8% JPN |
| 2 | 27' | Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +10% JPN |
| 3 | 47' | Genki Haraguchi scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +29% JPN |
| 4 | 51' | Takashi Inui scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +13% JPN |
| 5 | 68' | Jan Vertonghen scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +10% BEL |
| 6 | 73' | The game turned hereMarouane Fellaini-Bakkioui scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +33% BEL |
| 7 | 85' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +10% JPN |
| 8 | 93' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +37% BEL |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium go through in 87% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- France 4–3 Argentina Jun 30, 2018 · replay 63% for France
- Uruguay 2–1 Portugal Jun 30, 2018 · replay 38% for Uruguay
- Croatia 1–1 Denmark Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 69% for Croatia
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Brazil 2–0 Mexico Jul 2, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England
- Sweden 1–0 Switzerland Jul 3, 2018 · replay 64% for Sweden