Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · June 30, 2018
Uruguay 2–1 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Uruguay beat Portugal 2–1, but the replays send Portugal through 6 times in 10. Portugal made the better chances: 1.0 expected goals to 0.5.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +62 Uruguay very lucky · −62 Portugal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Uruguay win 2, 4 end level, Portugal win 4.
- 1 URU 1 POR 0
- 2 URU 3 POR 1
- 3 URU 0 POR 0
- 4 URU 1 POR 1
- 5 URU 1 POR 1
- 6 URU 0 POR 0
- 7 URU 0 POR 2
- 8 URU 0 POR 1
- 9 URU 1 POR 2
- 10 URU 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Uruguay win 23%, 36% end level, Portugal win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Uruguay by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Uruguay by 3+ | 1.1% |
| Uruguay by 2 | 5.4% |
| Uruguay by 1 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 36.4% |
| Portugal by 1 | 27.1% |
| Portugal by 2 | 10.5% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Uruguay | 7 | 2 | 0.48 | +1.52 |
 Portugal | 21 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 54' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 61' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Uruguay’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +20% URU |
| 2 | 10' | José Miguel da Rocha Fonte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% URU |
| 3 | 34' | Matías Vecino Falero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% POR |
| 4 | 53' | Adrien Sebastian Perruchet Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% URU |
| 5 | 54' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +28% POR |
| 6 | 61' | Edinson Roberto Cavani Gómez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +33% URU |
| 7 | 69' | Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% URU |
| 8 | 94' | Rui Pedro dos Santos Patrício didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% URU |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Uruguay go through in 38% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- France 4–3 Argentina Jun 30, 2018 · replay 63% for France
- Croatia 1–1 Denmark Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 69% for Croatia
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Belgium 3–2 Japan Jul 2, 2018 · replay 87% for Belgium
- Brazil 2–0 Mexico Jul 2, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England
- Sweden 1–0 Switzerland Jul 3, 2018 · replay 64% for Sweden