Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · July 2, 2018
Brazil 2–0 Mexico: who deserved to win?
Brazil beat Mexico 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Brazil go through 10 times in 10. Brazil made the better chances: 3.3 expected goals to 0.6.
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +4 Brazil about even · −4 Mexico
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Brazil win 9, 1 ends level, Mexico win 0.
- 1 BRA 1 MEX 0
- 2 BRA 2 MEX 0
- 3 BRA 2 MEX 0
- 4 BRA 3 MEX 0
- 5 BRA 4 MEX 0
- 6 BRA 4 MEX 0
- 7 BRA 5 MEX 0
- 8 BRA 6 MEX 1
- 9 BRA 7 MEX 0
- 10 BRA 0 MEX 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Brazil win 92%, 6% end level, Mexico win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Brazil by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Brazil by 3+ | 60.0% |
| Brazil by 2 | 19.0% |
| Brazil by 1 | 12.6% |
| Draw | 5.7% |
| Mexico by 1 | 2.1% |
| Mexico by 2 | 0.4% |
| Mexico by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 19 | 2 | 3.32 | −1.32 |
 Mexico | 14 | 0 | 0.58 | −0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 50' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.93 |
| 87' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.92 |
When it happened
Brazil’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Héctor Miguel Herrera López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BRA |
| 2 | 24' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% MEX |
| 3 | 25' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MEX |
| 4 | 32' | Gabriel Fernando de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% MEX |
| 5 | 32' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% MEX |
| 6 | 47' | Philippe Coutinho Correia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% MEX |
| 7 | 50' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 93% chance | +2% BRA |
| 8 | 86' | Hugo Ayala Castro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BRA |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Brazil go through in 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- France 4–3 Argentina Jun 30, 2018 · replay 63% for France
- Uruguay 2–1 Portugal Jun 30, 2018 · replay 38% for Uruguay
- Croatia 1–1 Denmark Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 69% for Croatia
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Belgium 3–2 Japan Jul 2, 2018 · replay 87% for Belgium
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England
- Sweden 1–0 Switzerland Jul 3, 2018 · replay 64% for Sweden