Round of 16 · World Cup 2018 · July 3, 2018
Sweden 1–0 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Sweden beat Switzerland 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Sweden go through 6 times in 10. Sweden made the better chances: 0.9 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 1 | 0.91 |
 Switzerland | 0 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form: who goes through
Luck index +36 Sweden lucky · −36 Switzerland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance, a level 90 minutes going to extra time and then penalties as a coin flip: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays of the 90 minutes. Sweden win 5, 4 end level, Switzerland win 1.
- 1 SWE 1 SUI 0
- 2 SWE 1 SUI 0
- 3 SWE 1 SUI 0
- 4 SWE 3 SUI 1
- 5 SWE 2 SUI 0
- 6 SWE 0 SUI 0
- 7 SWE 0 SUI 0
- 8 SWE 1 SUI 1
- 9 SWE 0 SUI 0
- 10 SWE 0 SUI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate. Shown for the 90 minutes.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sweden win 45%, 36% end level, Switzerland win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Sweden by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sweden by 3+ | 4.3% |
| Sweden by 2 | 12.7% |
| Sweden by 1 | 28.1% |
| Draw | 35.9% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 14.6% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 3.8% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sweden | 12 | 1 | 0.91 | +0.09 |
 Switzerland | 16 | 0 | 0.53 | −0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 65' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Sweden’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SUI |
| 2 | 40' | Albin Ekdal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% SUI |
| 3 | 48' | Ola Toivonen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% SUI |
| 4 | 65' | Emil Peter Forsberg scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +34% SWE |
| 5 | 78' | Michael Lang didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SWE |
| 6 | 78' | Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% SWE |
| 7 | 85' | Josip Drmic didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWE |
| 8 | 90' | Haris Seferović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWE |
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sweden go through in 64% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from round of 16, 2018
- France 4–3 Argentina Jun 30, 2018 · replay 63% for France
- Uruguay 2–1 Portugal Jun 30, 2018 · replay 38% for Uruguay
- Croatia 1–1 Denmark Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 69% for Croatia
- Spain 1–1 Russia Jul 1, 2018 · pens · replay 56% for Russia
- Belgium 3–2 Japan Jul 2, 2018 · replay 87% for Belgium
- Brazil 2–0 Mexico Jul 2, 2018 · replay 96% for Brazil
- Colombia 1–1 England Jul 3, 2018 · pens · replay 85% for England