Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Málaga 0–1 Betis: who deserved to win?
Betis beat Málaga 1–0, but the replays call it even: Betis win 4 of 10, Málaga 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.8 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 0 | 0.81 |
 Real Betis | 1 | 0.79 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Betis lucky · −49 Málaga
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Málaga win 3, 3 end level, Betis win 4.
- 1 MAL 2 BET 1
- 2 MAL 1 BET 0
- 3 MAL 2 BET 0
- 4 MAL 0 BET 0
- 5 MAL 0 BET 0
- 6 MAL 0 BET 0
- 7 MAL 0 BET 3
- 8 MAL 0 BET 1
- 9 MAL 1 BET 2
- 10 MAL 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Málaga win 31%, 35% end level, Betis win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Betis by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Málaga by 3+ | 2.6% |
| Málaga by 2 | 7.5% |
| Málaga by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 34.5% |
| Betis by 1 | 23.5% |
| Betis by 2 | 7.8% |
| Betis by 3+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Málaga | 12 | 0 | 0.81 | −0.81 |
 Betis | 7 | 1 | 0.79 | +0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 63' | Rubén Castro Martín scored from a shot | 0.36 |
When it happened
Málaga’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% MAL |
| 2 | 21' | Adnane Tighadouini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% BET |
| 3 | 31' | Juan Carlos Pérez López didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% BET |
| 4 | 42' | Rafael van der Vaart didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% MAL |
| 5 | 63' | The game turned hereRubén Castro Martín scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +24% BET |
| 6 | 74' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BET |
| 7 | 78' | Charles Días Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% BET |
| 8 | 89' | Weligton Róbson Pena de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% BET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Málaga 32% · draw 34% · Betis 34%
- Final margin
- Betis by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Betis
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Betis by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Málaga 31% · draw 35% · Betis 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Betis win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad Nov 6, 2015 · replay 67% for Las Palmas
- Levante 1–1 Deportivo Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Athletic 2–1 Espanyol Nov 8, 2015 · replay 56% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal Nov 8, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 8, 2015 · replay 60% for Sevilla