Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal: who deserved to win?
Barcelona beat Villarreal 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Barcelona win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Barcelona made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 3 | 2.87 |
 Villarreal | 0 | 0.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Barcelona about even · −5 Villarreal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Barcelona win 9, 1 ends level, Villarreal win 0.
- 1 BAR 1 VIL 0
- 2 BAR 2 VIL 0
- 3 BAR 2 VIL 0
- 4 BAR 3 VIL 0
- 5 BAR 3 VIL 0
- 6 BAR 3 VIL 0
- 7 BAR 4 VIL 0
- 8 BAR 5 VIL 0
- 9 BAR 6 VIL 0
- 10 BAR 1 VIL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Barcelona win 92%, 6% end level, Villarreal win 2%. The line is what actually happened: Barcelona by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Barcelona by 3+ | 57.6% |
| Barcelona by 2 | 20.3% |
| Barcelona by 1 | 13.8% |
| Draw | 6.3% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 1.8% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 0.1% |
| Villarreal by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | 20 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.87 | +0.13 |
 Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 0.33 | −0.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 62' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 69' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 84' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Barcelona’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Jérémy Mathieu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VIL |
| 2 | 44' | Samuel Castillejo Azuaga didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% BAR |
| 3 | 47' | Munir El Haddadi Mohamed didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% VIL |
| 4 | 47' | Daniel Alves da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% VIL |
| 5 | 53' | Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% VIL |
| 6 | 59' | Neymar da Silva Santos Junior scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +21% BAR |
| 7 | 62' | Andrés Iniesta Luján didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +5% VIL |
| 8 | 64' | Bruno Soriano Llido didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +2% BAR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Barcelona 99% · draw 1% · Villarreal 0%
- Final margin
- Barcelona by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Barcelona
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Barcelona by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Barcelona 92% · draw 6% · Villarreal 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Barcelona win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad Nov 6, 2015 · replay 67% for Las Palmas
- Levante 1–1 Deportivo Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Málaga 0–1 Betis Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Betis
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Athletic 2–1 Espanyol Nov 8, 2015 · replay 56% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 8, 2015 · replay 60% for Sevilla