Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Levante 1–1 Deportivo: who deserved to win?
Levante and Deportivo drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Levante win 6 of 10, Deportivo 1, and 3 end level. Levante made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 1 | 1.53 |
 Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −20 Levante about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 6, 3 end level, Deportivo win 1.
- 1 LEV 2 DEP 1
- 2 LEV 2 DEP 1
- 3 LEV 3 DEP 2
- 4 LEV 3 DEP 1
- 5 LEV 2 DEP 0
- 6 LEV 3 DEP 0
- 7 LEV 1 DEP 1
- 8 LEV 1 DEP 1
- 9 LEV 1 DEP 1
- 10 LEV 1 DEP 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 56%, 27% end level, Deportivo win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 11.6% |
| Levante by 2 | 17.9% |
| Levante by 1 | 26.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Deportivo by 1 | 12.5% |
| Deportivo by 2 | 3.3% |
| Deportivo by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 17 | 1 | 1.53 | −0.53 |
 Deportivo | 9 | 1 | 0.56 | +0.44 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 37' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 52' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
| 79' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Lucas Pérez Martínez scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +25% DEP |
| 2 | 37' | Jefferson Andrés Lerma Solís didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% DEP |
| 3 | 44' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% DEP |
| 4 | 50' | David Navarro Pedrós didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% DEP |
| 5 | 52' | Víctor Camarasa Ferrando scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +32% LEV |
| 6 | 57' | José Luis Morales Nogales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% DEP |
| 7 | 58' | Roger Martí Salvador didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% DEP |
| 8 | 79' | Lucas Pérez Martínez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +14% LEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 62% · draw 26% · Deportivo 12%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Deportivo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 56% · draw 27% · Deportivo 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad Nov 6, 2015 · replay 67% for Las Palmas
- Málaga 0–1 Betis Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Betis
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Athletic 2–1 Espanyol Nov 8, 2015 · replay 56% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal Nov 8, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 8, 2015 · replay 60% for Sevilla