Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 7, 2015
Rayo 2–1 Granada: who deserved to win?
Rayo beat Granada 2–1, and the replays lean Rayo’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Granada, 3 end level. Rayo made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 1.07 |
 Granada | 1 | 0.61 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Rayo lucky · −29 Granada
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rayo win 6, 3 end level, Granada win 1.
- 1 RAY 2 GRA 1
- 2 RAY 2 GRA 1
- 3 RAY 1 GRA 0
- 4 RAY 2 GRA 0
- 5 RAY 3 GRA 1
- 6 RAY 5 GRA 2
- 7 RAY 0 GRA 0
- 8 RAY 1 GRA 1
- 9 RAY 2 GRA 2
- 10 RAY 0 GRA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Rayo win 57%, 29% end level, Granada win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Rayo by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rayo by 3+ | 9.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 17.9% |
| Rayo by 1 | 29.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% |
| Granada by 1 | 11.4% |
| Granada by 2 | 2.6% |
| Granada by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo | 7 | 2 | 1.07 | +0.93 |
 Granada | 8 | 1 | 0.61 | +0.39 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 9' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shot | 0.38 |
| 51' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Rayo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chanceJavier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +10% RAY |
| 2 | 9' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez scored from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +8% RAY |
| 3 | 21' | Francisco Medina Luna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +4% RAY |
| 4 | 46' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% RAY |
| 5 | 51' | Jean-Sylvain Claude Babin scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +9% GRA |
| 6 | 58' | Rubén Salvador Pérez Del Mármol didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% RAY |
| 7 | 73' | Rubén Rochina Naixes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% RAY |
| 8 | 91' | Edgar Antonio Méndez Ortega didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rayo 49% · draw 32% · Granada 18%
- Final margin
- Rayo by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Rayo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rayo by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Rayo 57% · draw 29% · Granada 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Rayo win 71% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Rayo · Granada
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