Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 6, 2015
Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas beat Real Sociedad 2–0, and the replays lean Las Palmas’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Real Sociedad, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.0 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 2 | 0.98 |
 Real Sociedad | 0 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Las Palmas lucky · −33 Real Sociedad
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 5, 3 end level, Real Sociedad win 2.
- 1 LPA 1 RSO 0
- 2 LPA 2 RSO 1
- 3 LPA 1 RSO 0
- 4 LPA 2 RSO 0
- 5 LPA 3 RSO 0
- 6 LPA 0 RSO 0
- 7 LPA 0 RSO 0
- 8 LPA 0 RSO 0
- 9 LPA 1 RSO 2
- 10 LPA 0 RSO 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 51%, 31% end level, Real Sociedad win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Las Palmas by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 15.0% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 28.1% |
| Draw | 31.3% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 13.0% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 3.4% |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 9 | 2 | 0.98 | +1.02 |
 Real Sociedad | 11 | 0 | 0.75 | −0.75 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 27' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 50' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 26' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% RSO |
| 3 | 27' | Jonathan Viera Ramos scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +18% LPA |
| 4 | 44' | Asier Illarramendi Andonegi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% LPA |
| 5 | 50' | Sergio Ezequiel Araújo scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +10% LPA |
| 6 | 56' | Diego Antonio Reyes Rosales didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +1% LPA |
| 7 | 57' | Imanol Agirretxe Arruti didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% LPA |
| 8 | 58' | Sergio Canales Madrazo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 72% · draw 19% · Real Sociedad 9%
- Final margin
- Las Palmas by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Las Palmas by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 51% · draw 31% · Real Sociedad 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Las Palmas win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 11 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Real Sociedad
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Levante 1–1 Deportivo Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Málaga 0–1 Betis Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Betis
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Athletic 2–1 Espanyol Nov 8, 2015 · replay 56% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal Nov 8, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 8, 2015 · replay 60% for Sevilla