Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Athletic 2–1 Espanyol: who deserved to win?
Athletic beat Espanyol 2–1, and the replays lean Athletic’s way: 3 wins in 10, 2 for Espanyol, 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | 2 | 0.52 |
 Espanyol | 1 | 0.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Athletic lucky · −44 Espanyol
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Athletic win 3, 5 end level, Espanyol win 2.
- 1 ATH 1 ESP 0
- 2 ATH 1 ESP 0
- 3 ATH 2 ESP 0
- 4 ATH 0 ESP 0
- 5 ATH 0 ESP 0
- 6 ATH 0 ESP 0
- 7 ATH 0 ESP 0
- 8 ATH 0 ESP 0
- 9 ATH 0 ESP 1
- 10 ATH 0 ESP 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Athletic win 33%, 47% end level, Espanyol win 20%. The line is what actually happened: Athletic by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Athletic by 2 | 6.7% |
| Athletic by 1 | 24.3% |
| Draw | 47.0% |
| Espanyol by 1 | 15.9% |
| Espanyol by 2 | 3.6% |
| Espanyol by 3+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic | 8 | 2 | 0.52 | +1.48 |
 Espanyol | 5 | 1 | 0.46 | +0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 7' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shot | 0.19 |
| 50' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 63' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shot | 0.12 |
When it happened
Athletic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Iñaki Williams Arthuer scored from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +18% ATH |
| 2 | 12' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% ATH |
| 3 | 18' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ESP |
| 4 | 19' | Felipe Salvador Caicedo Corozo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% ATH |
| 5 | 24' | Carlos Gurpegi Nausia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% ESP |
| 6 | 24' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% ATH |
| 7 | 50' | Hernán Arsenio Pérez González scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +24% ESP |
| 8 | 63' | Raúl García Escudero scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +31% ATH |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Athletic 32% · draw 43% · Espanyol 25%
- Final margin
- Athletic by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Athletic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Athletic by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Athletic 33% · draw 47% · Espanyol 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Athletic win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad Nov 6, 2015 · replay 67% for Las Palmas
- Levante 1–1 Deportivo Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Málaga 0–1 Betis Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Betis
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal Nov 8, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona
- Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 8, 2015 · replay 60% for Sevilla