Matchday 11 · La Liga 2015-16 · November 8, 2015
Sevilla 3–2 Real Madrid: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Real Madrid 3–2, and the replays lean Sevilla’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Real Madrid, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 3 | 2.00 |
 Real Madrid | 2 | 1.63 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Sevilla lucky · −40 Real Madrid
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 5, 2 end level, Real Madrid win 3.
- 1 SEV 2 RMA 1
- 2 SEV 3 RMA 2
- 3 SEV 4 RMA 2
- 4 SEV 2 RMA 0
- 5 SEV 4 RMA 1
- 6 SEV 1 RMA 1
- 7 SEV 1 RMA 1
- 8 SEV 0 RMA 3
- 9 SEV 0 RMA 1
- 10 SEV 0 RMA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 49%, 22% end level, Real Madrid win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 13.7% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 14.8% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 20.3% |
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Real Madrid by 1 | 14.6% |
| Real Madrid by 2 | 9.4% |
| Real Madrid by 3+ | 5.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 15 | 3 | 2.00 | +1.00 |
 Real Madrid | 28 | 2 | 1.63 | +0.37 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Sergio Ramos García scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 35' | Ciro Immobile scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 39' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shot | 0.62 |
| 60' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 73' | Fernando Llorente Torres scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 92' | James David Rodríguez Rubio scored from a shot | 0.05 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% SEV |
| 2 | 21' | Sergio Ramos García scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +25% RMA |
| 3 | 34' | Grzegorz Krychowiak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% RMA |
| 4 | 35' | The game turned hereCiro Immobile scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +26% SEV |
| 5 | 39' | Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 62% chance | +17% RMA |
| 6 | 60' | Éver Maximiliano David Banega scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +28% SEV |
| 7 | 66' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% SEV |
| 8 | 72' | Carlos Henrique Casimiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +6% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 47% · draw 23% · Real Madrid 30%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 49% · draw 22% · Real Madrid 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 11, 2015-16
- Las Palmas 2–0 Real Sociedad Nov 6, 2015 · replay 67% for Las Palmas
- Levante 1–1 Deportivo Nov 7, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Málaga 0–1 Betis Nov 7, 2015 · replay 51% for Betis
- Rayo 2–1 Granada Nov 7, 2015 · replay 71% for Rayo
- Celta 1–5 Valencia Nov 7, 2015 · replay 70% for Valencia
- Eibar 3–1 Getafe Nov 7, 2015 · replay 90% for Eibar
- Athletic 2–1 Espanyol Nov 8, 2015 · replay 56% for Athletic
- Atlético 1–0 Sporting Nov 8, 2015 · replay 73% for Atlético
- Barcelona 3–0 Villarreal Nov 8, 2015 · replay 95% for Barcelona