Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 9, 2016
Getafe 1–0 Betis: who deserved to win?
Getafe beat Betis 1–0, but the replays call it even: Getafe win 4 of 10, Betis 2, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 1 | 0.74 |
 Real Betis | 0 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Getafe lucky · −45 Betis
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Getafe win 4, 4 end level, Betis win 2.
- 1 GET 2 BET 1
- 2 GET 1 BET 0
- 3 GET 1 BET 0
- 4 GET 2 BET 0
- 5 GET 1 BET 1
- 6 GET 1 BET 1
- 7 GET 0 BET 0
- 8 GET 1 BET 1
- 9 GET 0 BET 2
- 10 GET 0 BET 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Getafe win 37%, 36% end level, Betis win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Getafe by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Getafe by 3+ | 3.0% |
| Getafe by 2 | 9.3% |
| Getafe by 1 | 24.7% |
| Draw | 35.7% |
| Betis by 1 | 20.2% |
| Betis by 2 | 5.8% |
| Betis by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Getafe | 9 | 1 | 0.74 | +0.26 |
 Betis | 11 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 56' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Getafe’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GET |
| 2 | 14' | Rubén Castro Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% GET |
| 3 | 33' | Víctor Rodríguez Romero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% BET |
| 4 | 38' | Jorge Molina Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GET |
| 5 | 51' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% GET |
| 6 | 56' | Álvaro Vázquez García scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +27% GET |
| 7 | 57' | Alfred John Momar N''Diaye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% GET |
| 8 | 87' | Francisco Portillo Soler didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% GET |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Getafe 35% · draw 37% · Betis 28%
- Final margin
- Getafe by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Getafe
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Getafe by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Getafe 37% · draw 36% · Betis 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Getafe win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Rayo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 66% for Levante
- Sevilla 2–0 Athletic Jan 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Sevilla
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Sporting Jan 10, 2016 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Celta 0–2 Atlético Jan 10, 2016 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia Jan 10, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar