Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 10, 2016
Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga: who deserved to win?
Las Palmas and Málaga drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Las Palmas win 1 of 10, Málaga 6, and 3 end level. Málaga made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 1 | 0.35 |
 Málaga | 1 | 1.35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Las Palmas about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Las Palmas win 1, 3 end level, Málaga win 6.
- 1 LPA 2 MAL 1
- 2 LPA 1 MAL 1
- 3 LPA 1 MAL 1
- 4 LPA 2 MAL 2
- 5 LPA 0 MAL 3
- 6 LPA 0 MAL 2
- 7 LPA 0 MAL 2
- 8 LPA 0 MAL 1
- 9 LPA 0 MAL 1
- 10 LPA 0 MAL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Las Palmas win 13%, 27% end level, Málaga win 60%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Las Palmas by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Las Palmas by 2 | 2.1% |
| Las Palmas by 1 | 10.4% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Málaga by 1 | 30.5% |
| Málaga by 2 | 18.4% |
| Málaga by 3+ | 11.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Palmas | 5 | 1 | 0.35 | +0.65 |
 Málaga | 11 | 1 | 1.35 | −0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
| 50' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 71' | Roque Luis Santa Cruz Cantero scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Las Palmas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LPA |
| 2 | 10' | José Luis García del Pozo didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 10% chance | +2% LPA |
| 3 | 10' | Duje Čop didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +12% LPA |
| 4 | 48' | Roque Luis Santa Cruz Cantero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +7% LPA |
| 5 | 50' | Pedro Taunausú Domínguez Placeres scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +29% LPA |
| 6 | 60' | Jonathan Viera Ramos didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +2% MAL |
| 7 | 71' | Roque Luis Santa Cruz Cantero scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +30% MAL |
| 8 | 78' | Roque Luis Santa Cruz Cantero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LPA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Las Palmas 9% · draw 26% · Málaga 66%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Las Palmas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Málaga by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Las Palmas 13% · draw 27% · Málaga 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Las Palmas · Málaga
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