Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 10, 2016
Villarreal 2–0 Sporting: who deserved to win?
Villarreal beat Sporting 2–0, and the replays lean Villarreal’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Sporting, 3 end level. Villarreal made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 2 | 1.26 |
 Sporting Gijón | 0 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Villarreal lucky · −31 Sporting
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Villarreal win 6, 3 end level, Sporting win 1.
- 1 VIL 1 SPO 0
- 2 VIL 1 SPO 0
- 3 VIL 2 SPO 1
- 4 VIL 3 SPO 1
- 5 VIL 3 SPO 1
- 6 VIL 4 SPO 1
- 7 VIL 0 SPO 0
- 8 VIL 0 SPO 0
- 9 VIL 1 SPO 1
- 10 VIL 1 SPO 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Villarreal win 55%, 29% end level, Sporting win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Villarreal by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Villarreal by 3+ | 10.4% |
| Villarreal by 2 | 16.6% |
| Villarreal by 1 | 28.0% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Sporting by 1 | 12.5% |
| Sporting by 2 | 3.1% |
| Sporting by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 1.26 | +0.74 |
 Sporting | 12 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.80 |
| 50' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Villarreal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SPO |
| 2 | 9' | Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% VIL |
| 3 | 18' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% VIL |
| 4 | 24' | Cédric Bakambu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% SPO |
| 5 | 25' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 80% chance | +5% VIL |
| 6 | 45' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% VIL |
| 7 | 46' | Alen Halilović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% VIL |
| 8 | 50' | Cédric Bakambu scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +10% VIL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Villarreal 83% · draw 13% · Sporting 5%
- Final margin
- Villarreal by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for Villarreal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Villarreal by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Villarreal 55% · draw 29% · Sporting 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Villarreal win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Villarreal · Sporting
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Rayo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 66% for Levante
- Sevilla 2–0 Athletic Jan 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Sevilla
- Getafe 1–0 Betis Jan 9, 2016 · replay 55% for Getafe
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Celta 0–2 Atlético Jan 10, 2016 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia Jan 10, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar