Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 9, 2016
Levante 2–1 Rayo: who deserved to win?
Levante beat Rayo 2–1, and the replays lean Levante’s way: 5 wins in 10, 1 for Rayo, 4 end level. Levante made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Levante | 2 | 0.80 |
 Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0.33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Levante lucky · −34 Rayo
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Levante win 5, 4 end level, Rayo win 1.
- 1 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 2 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 3 LEV 1 RAY 0
- 4 LEV 3 RAY 1
- 5 LEV 2 RAY 0
- 6 LEV 0 RAY 0
- 7 LEV 0 RAY 0
- 8 LEV 1 RAY 1
- 9 LEV 0 RAY 0
- 10 LEV 0 RAY 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Levante win 47%, 39% end level, Rayo win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Levante by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Levante by 3+ | 3.8% |
| Levante by 2 | 12.7% |
| Levante by 1 | 30.4% |
| Draw | 39.1% |
| Rayo by 1 | 11.8% |
| Rayo by 2 | 1.9% |
| Rayo by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Levante | 10 | 2 | 0.80 | +1.20 |
 Rayo | 10 | 1 | 0.33 | +0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 71' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 80' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 82' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Levante’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Javier Guerra Rodríguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LEV |
| 2 | 47' | Mauricio Andrés Cuero Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% RAY |
| 3 | 48' | Nabil Ghilas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% RAY |
| 4 | 55' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% RAY |
| 5 | 56' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% RAY |
| 6 | 71' | Deyverson Brum Silva Acosta scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +35% LEV |
| 7 | 80' | José Luis Morales Nogales scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +4% LEV |
| 8 | 82' | Pablo Hernández Domínguez scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +4% RAY |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Levante 45% · draw 40% · Rayo 15%
- Final margin
- Levante by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Levante
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Levante by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Levante 47% · draw 39% · Rayo 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Levante win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Sevilla 2–0 Athletic Jan 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Sevilla
- Getafe 1–0 Betis Jan 9, 2016 · replay 55% for Getafe
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Sporting Jan 10, 2016 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Celta 0–2 Atlético Jan 10, 2016 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia Jan 10, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar