Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 10, 2016
Celta 0–2 Atlético: who deserved to win?
Atlético beat Celta 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Atlético win 6 of 10, 3 end level. Atlético made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.25 |
 Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Atlético about even · −19 Celta
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Celta win 1, 3 end level, Atlético win 6.
- 1 CEL 1 ATM 0
- 2 CEL 0 ATM 0
- 3 CEL 0 ATM 0
- 4 CEL 0 ATM 0
- 5 CEL 0 ATM 3
- 6 CEL 0 ATM 2
- 7 CEL 0 ATM 2
- 8 CEL 0 ATM 1
- 9 CEL 0 ATM 1
- 10 CEL 0 ATM 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Celta win 7%, 26% end level, Atlético win 68%. The line is what actually happened: Atlético by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Celta by 3+ | 0.1% |
| Celta by 2 | 0.7% |
| Celta by 1 | 5.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Atlético by 1 | 31.6% |
| Atlético by 2 | 21.9% |
| Atlético by 3+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celta | 6 | 0 | 0.25 | −0.25 |
 Atlético | 10 | 2 | 1.32 | +0.68 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shot | 0.74 |
| 79' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Celta’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Luciano Vietto didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% CEL |
| 2 | 20' | Iago Aspas Juncal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% ATM |
| 3 | 27' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% CEL |
| 4 | 29' | Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% CEL |
| 5 | 33' | Antoine Griezmann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% CEL |
| 6 | 48' | Antoine Griezmann scored from a shotFinishing · 74% chance | +9% ATM |
| 7 | 72' | Daniel Wass didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% ATM |
| 8 | 79' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% ATM |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Celta 1% · draw 5% · Atlético 94%
- Final margin
- Atlético by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Atlético
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Atlético by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Celta 7% · draw 26% · Atlético 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Atlético win 81% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Rayo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 66% for Levante
- Sevilla 2–0 Athletic Jan 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Sevilla
- Getafe 1–0 Betis Jan 9, 2016 · replay 55% for Getafe
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Sporting Jan 10, 2016 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia Jan 10, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar