Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 10, 2016
Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia: who deserved to win?
Real Sociedad beat Valencia 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Real Sociedad win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Real Sociedad made the better chances: 2.9 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 2 | 2.94 |
 Valencia | 0 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Real Sociedad about even · −11 Valencia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Real Sociedad win 8, 1 ends level, Valencia win 1.
- 1 RSO 2 VAL 1
- 2 RSO 2 VAL 1
- 3 RSO 3 VAL 1
- 4 RSO 3 VAL 0
- 5 RSO 4 VAL 1
- 6 RSO 4 VAL 0
- 7 RSO 6 VAL 1
- 8 RSO 7 VAL 1
- 9 RSO 2 VAL 2
- 10 RSO 1 VAL 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Real Sociedad win 83%, 11% end level, Valencia win 6%. The line is what actually happened: Real Sociedad by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 43.8% |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 20.6% |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 18.8% |
| Draw | 10.8% |
| Valencia by 1 | 4.7% |
| Valencia by 2 | 1.0% |
| Valencia by 3+ | 0.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | 24 | 2 | 2.94 | −0.94 |
 Valencia | 10 | 0 | 0.67 | −0.67 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 46' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 78' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.71 |
| 81' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Real Sociedad’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18' | Rodrigo Moreno Machado didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% RSO |
| 2 | 46' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +9% VAL |
| 3 | 46' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +11% VAL |
| 4 | 57' | Carlos Alberto Vela Garrido didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% VAL |
| 5 | 61' | Rubén Pardo Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% VAL |
| 6 | 73' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% VAL |
| 7 | 78' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shotFinishing · 71% chance | +12% RSO |
| 8 | 81' | Jonathas Cristian de Jesus scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% RSO |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Real Sociedad 95% · draw 4% · Valencia 1%
- Final margin
- Real Sociedad by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Valencia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Real Sociedad by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Real Sociedad 83% · draw 11% · Valencia 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Real Sociedad win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Rayo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 66% for Levante
- Sevilla 2–0 Athletic Jan 9, 2016 · replay 68% for Sevilla
- Getafe 1–0 Betis Jan 9, 2016 · replay 55% for Getafe
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Sporting Jan 10, 2016 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Celta 0–2 Atlético Jan 10, 2016 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar