Matchday 19 · La Liga 2015-16 · January 9, 2016
Sevilla 2–0 Athletic: who deserved to win?
Sevilla beat Athletic 2–0, and the replays lean Sevilla’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Athletic, 2 end level. Sevilla made the better chances: 1.3 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 2 | 1.25 |
 Athletic Club | 0 | 0.89 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Sevilla lucky · −32 Athletic
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sevilla win 6, 2 end level, Athletic win 2.
- 1 SEV 2 ATH 1
- 2 SEV 1 ATH 0
- 3 SEV 2 ATH 1
- 4 SEV 2 ATH 0
- 5 SEV 3 ATH 0
- 6 SEV 4 ATH 0
- 7 SEV 0 ATH 0
- 8 SEV 1 ATH 1
- 9 SEV 1 ATH 2
- 10 SEV 0 ATH 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sevilla win 56%, 25% end level, Athletic win 19%. The line is what actually happened: Sevilla by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sevilla by 3+ | 13.2% |
| Sevilla by 2 | 18.2% |
| Sevilla by 1 | 24.7% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Athletic by 1 | 13.7% |
| Athletic by 2 | 4.3% |
| Athletic by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sevilla | 4 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.25 | +0.75 |
 Athletic | 12 | 0 | 0.89 | −0.89 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shot | 0.18 |
| 58' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Sevilla’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Raúl García Escudero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SEV |
| 2 | 4' | Aymeric Laporte didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SEV |
| 3 | 4' | Mikel San José Domínguez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% SEV |
| 4 | 15' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SEV |
| 5 | 23' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +20% SEV |
| 6 | 46' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% SEV |
| 7 | 58' | Kevin Gameiro scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +2% SEV |
| 8 | 74' | Aritz Aduriz Zubeldia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +1% SEV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sevilla 76% · draw 16% · Athletic 8%
- Final margin
- Sevilla by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Sevilla
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sevilla by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sevilla 56% · draw 25% · Athletic 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sevilla win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Levante 2–1 Rayo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 66% for Levante
- Getafe 1–0 Betis Jan 9, 2016 · replay 55% for Getafe
- Real Madrid 5–0 Deportivo Jan 9, 2016 · replay 91% for Real Madrid
- Barcelona 4–0 Granada Jan 9, 2016 · replay 98% for Barcelona
- Las Palmas 1–1 Málaga Jan 10, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Villarreal 2–0 Sporting Jan 10, 2016 · replay 69% for Villarreal
- Celta 0–2 Atlético Jan 10, 2016 · replay 81% for Atlético
- Real Sociedad 2–0 Valencia Jan 10, 2016 · replay 89% for Real Sociedad
- Eibar 2–1 Espanyol Jan 10, 2016 · replay 90% for Eibar