Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
Norwich 0–3 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Norwich 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Tottenham win 8 of 10, 1 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 0 | 1.18 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2.52 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Tottenham about even · −12 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 1, 1 ends level, Tottenham win 8.
- 1 NOR 5 TOT 4
- 2 NOR 2 TOT 2
- 3 NOR 0 TOT 5
- 4 NOR 1 TOT 5
- 5 NOR 0 TOT 3
- 6 NOR 1 TOT 4
- 7 NOR 2 TOT 4
- 8 NOR 1 TOT 3
- 9 NOR 2 TOT 3
- 10 NOR 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 7%, 12% end level, Tottenham win 82%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Norwich by 2 | 1.7% |
| Norwich by 1 | 4.5% |
| Draw | 11.6% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 17.7% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 20.0% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 44.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 11 | 0 | 1.18 | −1.18 |
 Tottenham | 17 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.52 | +0.48 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 1' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.59 |
| 29' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 54' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shot | 0.46 |
| 89' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% NOR |
| 2 | 1' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +10% TOT |
| 3 | 9' | Toby Alderweireld didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% NOR |
| 4 | 16' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% NOR |
| 5 | 28' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% NOR |
| 6 | 29' | Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +4% TOT |
| 7 | 54' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance | +7% TOT |
| 8 | 54' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +4% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 3% · draw 8% · Tottenham 89%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 7% · draw 12% · Tottenham 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 88% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Tottenham
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
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- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
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- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
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