Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
Man United 3–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Stoke 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Man United made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 3 | 2.46 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Man United about even · −6 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 9, 1 ends level, Stoke win 0.
- 1 MUN 2 STK 1
- 2 MUN 2 STK 1
- 3 MUN 2 STK 0
- 4 MUN 2 STK 0
- 5 MUN 3 STK 0
- 6 MUN 3 STK 0
- 7 MUN 4 STK 0
- 8 MUN 6 STK 1
- 9 MUN 7 STK 1
- 10 MUN 0 STK 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 90%, 8% end level, Stoke win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 52.9% |
| Man United by 2 | 20.3% |
| Man United by 1 | 16.6% |
| Draw | 7.6% |
| Stoke by 1 | 2.1% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.4% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 15 | 3 | 2.46 | +0.54 |
 Stoke | 10 | 0 | 0.62 | −0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 22' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 38' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 52' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.84 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% STK |
| 2 | 6' | Ibrahim Afellay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% MUN |
| 3 | 12' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% STK |
| 4 | 13' | Jesse Lingard scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +14% MUN |
| 5 | 14' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% STK |
| 6 | 16' | Glen Johnson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +3% MUN |
| 7 | 22' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +12% MUN |
| 8 | 33' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +2% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 95% · draw 4% · Stoke 1%
- Final margin
- Man United by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 90% · draw 8% · Stoke 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Stoke
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 2, 2016 · replay 33% for Bournemouth
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle Feb 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Everton