Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
West Brom 1–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
West Brom and Swansea drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Brom win 5 of 10, Swansea 3, and 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 2.19 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 1.50 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −7 West Brom about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 5, 2 end level, Swansea win 3.
- 1 WBA 3 SWA 2
- 2 WBA 3 SWA 2
- 3 WBA 5 SWA 3
- 4 WBA 2 SWA 0
- 5 WBA 3 SWA 0
- 6 WBA 1 SWA 1
- 7 WBA 2 SWA 2
- 8 WBA 0 SWA 2
- 9 WBA 0 SWA 1
- 10 WBA 2 SWA 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 46%, 22% end level, Swansea win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 12.5% |
| West Brom by 2 | 13.1% |
| West Brom by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Swansea by 1 | 17.1% |
| Swansea by 2 | 9.1% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 18 | 1 | 2.19 | −1.19 |
 Swansea | 18 | 1 | 1.50 | −0.50 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 38' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 63' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 87' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
| 91' | Darren Fletcher didn’t score from a shot | 0.30 |
| 91' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.51 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +9% SWA |
| 2 | 41' | Darren Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +7% SWA |
| 3 | 49' | Alberto Paloschi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% WBA |
| 4 | 63' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +34% SWA |
| 5 | 91' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% SWA |
| 6 | 91' | Victor Chinedu Anichebe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% SWA |
| 7 | 91' | Darren Fletcher didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +15% SWA |
| 8 | 91' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +24% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 55% · draw 21% · Swansea 24%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 46% · draw 22% · Swansea 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Swansea
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 2, 2016 · replay 33% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle Feb 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Everton