Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Crystal Palace 2–1, but the replays lean toward Crystal Palace: 5 wins in 10 to Bournemouth’s 3, 2 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.54 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 0.75 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Bournemouth very lucky · −67 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 5, 2 end level, Bournemouth win 3.
- 1 CRY 2 BOU 1
- 2 CRY 2 BOU 1
- 3 CRY 3 BOU 2
- 4 CRY 4 BOU 2
- 5 CRY 3 BOU 0
- 6 CRY 1 BOU 1
- 7 CRY 1 BOU 1
- 8 CRY 1 BOU 3
- 9 CRY 0 BOU 1
- 10 CRY 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 55%, 24% end level, Bournemouth win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 11.7% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 16.1% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 14.8% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 4.5% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 14 | 1 | 1.54 | −0.54 |
 Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 0.75 | +1.25 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 25' | Scott Dann scored from a shot | 0.69 |
| 30' | Marc Pugh scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 56' | Benik Afobe scored from a shot | 0.25 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +5% CRY |
| 2 | 25' | Scott Dann scored from a shotFinishing · 69% chance | +8% CRY |
| 3 | 30' | Marc Pugh scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +24% BOU |
| 4 | 43' | Pape N''Diaye Souaré didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 56' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CRY |
| 6 | 56' | The game turned hereBenik Afobe scored from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +27% BOU |
| 7 | 82' | Marouane Chamakh didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% BOU |
| 8 | 91' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 58% · draw 25% · Bournemouth 17%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Crystal Palace by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 55% · draw 24% · Bournemouth 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 33% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 24 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Bournemouth
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle Feb 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Everton