Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Aston Villa 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Ham win 9 of 10, 1 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 2.67 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 West Ham about even · −5 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 9, 1 ends level, Aston Villa win 0.
- 1 WHU 1 AVL 0
- 2 WHU 1 AVL 0
- 3 WHU 3 AVL 1
- 4 WHU 3 AVL 1
- 5 WHU 3 AVL 0
- 6 WHU 3 AVL 0
- 7 WHU 4 AVL 0
- 8 WHU 5 AVL 0
- 9 WHU 6 AVL 0
- 10 WHU 0 AVL 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 92%, 7% end level, Aston Villa win 1%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 54.7% |
| West Ham by 2 | 21.9% |
| West Ham by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 7.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 1.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.1% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 26 | 2 | 2.67 | −0.67 |
 Aston Villa | 5 | 0 | 0.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shot | 0.60 |
| 57' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 64' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 84' | Cheikhou Kouyaté scored from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +2% AVL |
| 2 | 28' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% AVL |
| 3 | 30' | James Tomkins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 4 | 30' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 60% chance | +16% AVL |
| 5 | 47' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% AVL |
| 6 | 47' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% AVL |
| 7 | 57' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +30% WHU |
| 8 | 64' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +4% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 99% · draw 1% · Aston Villa 0%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Aston Villa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 92% · draw 7% · Aston Villa 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 95% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 2, 2016 · replay 33% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle Feb 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Everton