Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 2, 2016
Sunderland 0–1 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Sunderland 1–0, but the replays lean toward Sunderland: 4 wins in 10 to Man City’s 3, 3 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 0 | 1.19 |
 Manchester City | 1 | 0.58 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Man City very lucky · −60 Sunderland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 4, 3 end level, Man City win 3.
- 1 SUN 1 MCI 0
- 2 SUN 1 MCI 0
- 3 SUN 1 MCI 0
- 4 SUN 3 MCI 1
- 5 SUN 0 MCI 0
- 6 SUN 0 MCI 0
- 7 SUN 0 MCI 0
- 8 SUN 0 MCI 2
- 9 SUN 0 MCI 1
- 10 SUN 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 44%, 34% end level, Man City win 23%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 5.0% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 12.0% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 26.5% |
| Draw | 34.0% |
| Man City by 1 | 16.1% |
| Man City by 2 | 5.4% |
| Man City by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 12 | 0 | 1.19 | −1.19 |
 Man City | 7 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.42 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.39 |
| 43' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +16% MCI |
| 2 | 33' | Lamine Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% MCI |
| 3 | 40' | Jan Kirchhoff didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MCI |
| 4 | 43' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +13% MCI |
| 5 | 43' | Billy Jones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% MCI |
| 6 | 77' | John O''Shea didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MCI |
| 7 | 87' | Dame N''Doye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% MCI |
| 8 | 92' | Jan Kirchhoff didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 51% · draw 31% · Man City 19%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 44% · draw 34% · Man City 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 2, 2016 · replay 33% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws
- Everton 3–0 Newcastle Feb 3, 2016 · replay 96% for Everton