Matchday 24 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 3, 2016
Everton 3–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Newcastle 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Everton win 9 of 10. Everton made the better chances: 3.1 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 3 | 3.11 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Everton about even · −4 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 9, 0 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 EVE 2 NEW 1
- 2 EVE 3 NEW 1
- 3 EVE 5 NEW 2
- 4 EVE 3 NEW 0
- 5 EVE 4 NEW 0
- 6 EVE 4 NEW 0
- 7 EVE 5 NEW 0
- 8 EVE 6 NEW 0
- 9 EVE 9 NEW 1
- 10 EVE 2 NEW 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 94%, 5% end level, Newcastle win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 65.9% |
| Everton by 2 | 16.6% |
| Everton by 1 | 11.3% |
| Draw | 4.9% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 1.2% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 0.1% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 20 (2 pen) | 3 | 3.11 | −0.11 |
 Newcastle | 7 | 0 | 0.62 | −0.62 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 87' | Ross Barkley scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 90' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 93' | Ross Barkley scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 6% chance | +1% NEW |
| 2 | 22' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +23% EVE |
| 3 | 41' | Aaron Lennon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +3% NEW |
| 4 | 50' | Aaron Lennon didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +3% NEW |
| 5 | 62' | Jamaal Lascelles didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +9% EVE |
| 6 | 65' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% EVE |
| 7 | 75' | Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% EVE |
| 8 | 81' | Daryl Janmaat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% EVE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 98% · draw 2% · Newcastle 0%
- Final margin
- Everton by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 94% · draw 5% · Newcastle 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 24, 2015-16
- West Ham 2–0 Aston Villa Feb 2, 2016 · replay 95% for West Ham
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth Feb 2, 2016 · replay 33% for Bournemouth
- Man United 3–0 Stoke Feb 2, 2016 · replay 94% for Man United
- Sunderland 0–1 Man City Feb 2, 2016 · replay 40% for Man City
- Arsenal 0–0 Southampton Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 17% draws
- Leicester 2–0 Liverpool Feb 2, 2016 · replay 73% for Leicester
- Norwich 0–3 Tottenham Feb 2, 2016 · replay 88% for Tottenham
- West Brom 1–1 Swansea Feb 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Watford 0–0 Chelsea Feb 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 31% draws