luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 11, 2021

Turkey 0–3 Italy: who deserved to win?

Italy beat Turkey 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Italy win 8 of 10, 2 end level. Italy made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.1. An own goal helped Italy.

Full time

GoalsxG
Turkey 0 0.15
Italy 3 1.59

June 11, 2021 · Estadio Olímpico · Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Luck index +11 Italy about even · −11 Turkey

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Turkey win 0, 2 end level, Italy win 8.

  1. 1 TUR 1 ITA 1
  2. 2 TUR 0 ITA 0
  3. 3 TUR 0 ITA 4
  4. 4 TUR 0 ITA 3
  5. 5 TUR 0 ITA 3
  6. 6 TUR 0 ITA 2
  7. 7 TUR 0 ITA 2
  8. 8 TUR 0 ITA 1
  9. 9 TUR 0 ITA 1
  10. 10 TUR 0 ITA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Turkey win 2%, 18% end level, Italy win 80%. The line is what actually happened: Italy by 3.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Turkey by 3+0.0%
Turkey by 20.2%
Turkey by 12.0%
Draw17.6%
Italy by 129.4%
Italy by 223.9%
Italy by 3+26.9%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Turkey300.15−0.15
Italy2421.59+0.41

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
65'Ciro Immobile scored from a shot0.35
78'Lorenzo Insigne scored from a shot0.19

When it happened

Turkey’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Turkey was ahead in it, below while Italy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 17' Lorenzo Insigne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% TUR
2 20' Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +1% TUR
3 21' Giorgio Chiellini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% TUR
4 22' Leonardo Bonucci didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% TUR
5 42' Ciro Immobile didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% TUR
6 44' Domenico Berardi didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +4% TUR
7 52' Own goal by nan, for ItalyOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +31% ITA
8 65' Ciro Immobile scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance +7% ITA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Turkey 1% · draw 4% · Italy 95%

Final margin
Italy by 3
Luck in goals
1.4 for Italy
Luck-adjusted margin
Italy by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Turkey 2% · draw 18% · Italy 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Italy win 89% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 1 matches, 2020 · Turkey · Italy

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