Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 12, 2021
Denmark 0–1 Finland: who deserved to win?
Finland beat Denmark 1–0, a result the replays rarely give: Denmark win 7 of 10, Finland only 1, 2 end level. Denmark made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Finland very lucky · −83 Denmark
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Denmark win 7, 2 end level, Finland win 1.
- 1 DEN 1 FIN 0
- 2 DEN 1 FIN 0
- 3 DEN 1 FIN 0
- 4 DEN 2 FIN 0
- 5 DEN 3 FIN 1
- 6 DEN 4 FIN 1
- 7 DEN 5 FIN 1
- 8 DEN 0 FIN 0
- 9 DEN 1 FIN 1
- 10 DEN 1 FIN 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Denmark win 73%, 20% end level, Finland win 7%. The line is what actually happened: Finland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Denmark by 3+ | 22.2% |
| Denmark by 2 | 23.4% |
| Denmark by 1 | 27.6% |
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Finland by 1 | 5.9% |
| Finland by 2 | 0.9% |
| Finland by 3+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Denmark | 22 (1 pen) | 0 | 1.95 | −1.95 |
 Finland | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | +0.71 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 59' | Joel Pohjanpalo scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 73' | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Denmark’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Jonas Older Wind didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% FIN |
| 2 | 14' | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% FIN |
| 3 | 54' | Jonas Older Wind didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% FIN |
| 4 | 59' | Joel Pohjanpalo scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +25% FIN |
| 5 | 73' | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +32% FIN |
| 6 | 76' | Andreas Evald Cornelius didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% FIN |
| 7 | 91' | Jannik Vestergaard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% FIN |
| 8 | 92' | Jannik Vestergaard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% FIN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Denmark 84% · draw 13% · Finland 4%
- Final margin
- Finland by 1
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for Finland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Denmark by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Denmark 73% · draw 20% · Finland 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Finland win 17% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal