luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 14, 2021

Spain 0–0 Sweden: who deserved to win?

Spain and Sweden drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Spain win 6 of 10, Sweden 2, and 2 end level. Spain made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.8.

Full time

GoalsxG
Spain 0 1.93
Sweden 0 0.82

June 14, 2021 · Estadio de La Cartuja · Referee: Slavko Vinčić

Luck index −24 Spain about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Spain win 6, 2 end level, Sweden win 2.

  1. 1 ESP 1 SWE 0
  2. 2 ESP 3 SWE 2
  3. 3 ESP 3 SWE 1
  4. 4 ESP 2 SWE 0
  5. 5 ESP 3 SWE 0
  6. 6 ESP 4 SWE 0
  7. 7 ESP 1 SWE 1
  8. 8 ESP 1 SWE 1
  9. 9 ESP 0 SWE 2
  10. 10 ESP 0 SWE 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Spain win 64%, 20% end level, Sweden win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Spain by 3+18.5%
Spain by 221.0%
Spain by 124.8%
Draw20.2%
Sweden by 110.9%
Sweden by 23.5%
Sweden by 3+1.2%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Spain1701.93−1.93
Sweden400.82−0.82

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

The big chances, and every goal

MinuteChancexG
37'Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shot0.46
60'Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shot0.63

When it happened

Spain’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Spain was ahead in it, below while Sweden was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 15' Daniel Olmo Carvajal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +5% SWE
2 28' Jorge Resurrección Merodio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance +6% SWE
3 37' Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 46% chance +13% SWE
4 40' Alexander Isak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance +3% ESP
5 49' Álvaro Borja Morata Martín didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +5% SWE
6 60' Marcus Berg didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 63% chance +22% ESP
7 89' Gerard Moreno Balaguero didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +9% SWE
8 92' Pablo Sarabia García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +11% SWE

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Spain 66% · draw 23% · Sweden 12%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.8 for Sweden
Luck-adjusted margin
Spain by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Spain 64% · draw 20% · Sweden 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this match and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a chance goes in.

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 1 matches, 2020 · Spain · Sweden

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