Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 12, 2021
Belgium 3–0 Russia: who deserved to win?
Belgium beat Russia 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Belgium win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Belgium made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Belgium about even · −15 Russia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Belgium win 7, 2 end level, Russia win 1.
- 1 BEL 1 RUS 0
- 2 BEL 1 RUS 0
- 3 BEL 1 RUS 0
- 4 BEL 2 RUS 0
- 5 BEL 2 RUS 0
- 6 BEL 3 RUS 0
- 7 BEL 3 RUS 0
- 8 BEL 0 RUS 0
- 9 BEL 1 RUS 1
- 10 BEL 0 RUS 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Belgium win 75%, 21% end level, Russia win 4%. The line is what actually happened: Belgium by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Belgium by 3+ | 21.6% |
| Belgium by 2 | 23.7% |
| Belgium by 1 | 29.2% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Russia by 1 | 3.9% |
| Russia by 2 | 0.2% |
| Russia by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Belgium | 9 | 3 | 1.39 | +1.61 |
 Russia | 5 | 0 | 0.26 | −0.26 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.52 |
| 33' | Thomas Meunier scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 87' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.17 |
When it happened
Belgium’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +12% BEL |
| 2 | 13' | Mário Figueira Fernandes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% BEL |
| 3 | 15' | Magomed Ozdoev didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% BEL |
| 4 | 17' | Leander Dendoncker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +1% RUS |
| 5 | 21' | Thorgan Hazard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% RUS |
| 6 | 33' | Thomas Meunier scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +9% BEL |
| 7 | 45' | Roman Zobnin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% BEL |
| 8 | 47' | Yannick Ferreira Carrasco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +0% RUS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Belgium 95% · draw 5% · Russia 1%
- Final margin
- Belgium by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Belgium
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Belgium by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Belgium 75% · draw 21% · Russia 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Belgium win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal