Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 14, 2021
Poland 1–2 Slovakia: who deserved to win?
Slovakia beat Poland 2–1, but the replays lean toward Poland: 6 wins in 10 to Slovakia’s 1, 3 end level. Poland made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.3. An own goal helped Slovakia.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 Slovakia very lucky · −72 Poland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Poland win 6, 3 end level, Slovakia win 1.
- 1 POL 1 SVK 0
- 2 POL 2 SVK 1
- 3 POL 1 SVK 0
- 4 POL 2 SVK 0
- 5 POL 2 SVK 0
- 6 POL 3 SVK 0
- 7 POL 1 SVK 1
- 8 POL 1 SVK 1
- 9 POL 0 SVK 0
- 10 POL 0 SVK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Poland win 58%, 30% end level, Slovakia win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Slovakia by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Poland by 3+ | 9.7% |
| Poland by 2 | 17.5% |
| Poland by 1 | 30.4% |
| Draw | 29.7% |
| Slovakia by 1 | 10.2% |
| Slovakia by 2 | 2.0% |
| Slovakia by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Poland | 18 | 1 | 1.39 | −0.39 |
 Slovakia | 11 | 1 | 0.35 | +0.65 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Karol Linetty scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 68' | Milan Škriniar scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Poland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Own goal by nan, for SlovakiaOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% SVK |
| 2 | 45' | Karol Linetty scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +22% POL |
| 3 | 50' | Karol Linetty didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% SVK |
| 4 | 52' | Kamil Glik didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SVK |
| 5 | 68' | Milan Škriniar scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +35% SVK |
| 6 | 87' | Robert Lewandowski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% SVK |
| 7 | 90' | Jan Bednarek didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% SVK |
| 8 | 92' | Karol Świderski didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% SVK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Poland 66% · draw 25% · Slovakia 9%
- Final margin
- Slovakia by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for Slovakia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Poland by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Poland 58% · draw 30% · Slovakia 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Slovakia win 28% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal