Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 13, 2021
Austria 3–1 North Macedonia: who deserved to win?
Austria beat North Macedonia 3–1, and the replays lean Austria’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for North Macedonia, 3 end level. Austria made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Austria | 3 | 1.44 |
 North Macedonia | 1 | 0.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Austria lucky · −31 North Macedonia
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Austria win 6, 3 end level, North Macedonia win 1.
- 1 AUT 1 MKD 0
- 2 AUT 2 MKD 1
- 3 AUT 1 MKD 0
- 4 AUT 2 MKD 0
- 5 AUT 3 MKD 0
- 6 AUT 4 MKD 0
- 7 AUT 2 MKD 2
- 8 AUT 1 MKD 1
- 9 AUT 1 MKD 1
- 10 AUT 0 MKD 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Austria win 56%, 26% end level, North Macedonia win 17%. The line is what actually happened: Austria by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Austria by 3+ | 12.3% |
| Austria by 2 | 17.3% |
| Austria by 1 | 26.7% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
| North Macedonia by 1 | 12.4% |
| North Macedonia by 2 | 3.9% |
| North Macedonia by 3+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Austria | 10 | 3 | 1.44 | +1.56 |
 North Macedonia | 7 | 1 | 0.84 | +0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Stefan Lainer scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 27' | Goran Pandev scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 77' | Michael Gregoritsch scored from a shot | 0.37 |
| 88' | Marko Arnautović scored from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Austria’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Stefan Lainer scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +21% AUT |
| 2 | 21' | Sasa Kalajdzic didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% MKD |
| 3 | 27' | Goran Pandev scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +15% MKD |
| 4 | 62' | Boban Nikolov didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +7% AUT |
| 5 | 63' | Michael Gregoritsch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% MKD |
| 6 | 66' | Marcel Sabitzer didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% MKD |
| 7 | 73' | Eljif Elmas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% AUT |
| 8 | 77' | Michael Gregoritsch scored from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +26% AUT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Austria 79% · draw 15% · North Macedonia 6%
- Final margin
- Austria by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Austria
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Austria by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Austria 56% · draw 26% · North Macedonia 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Austria win 69% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal