Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 12, 2021
Wales 1–1 Switzerland: who deserved to win?
Wales and Switzerland drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Wales win 1 of 10, Switzerland 7, and 2 end level. Switzerland made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Wales | 1 | 0.58 |
 Switzerland | 1 | 1.56 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Wales about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wales win 1, 2 end level, Switzerland win 7.
- 1 WAL 2 SUI 1
- 2 WAL 1 SUI 1
- 3 WAL 1 SUI 1
- 4 WAL 0 SUI 4
- 5 WAL 1 SUI 4
- 6 WAL 1 SUI 3
- 7 WAL 1 SUI 3
- 8 WAL 1 SUI 2
- 9 WAL 1 SUI 2
- 10 WAL 1 SUI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Wales win 13%, 24% end level, Switzerland win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wales by 3+ | 0.5% |
| Wales by 2 | 2.6% |
| Wales by 1 | 9.9% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Switzerland by 1 | 27.4% |
| Switzerland by 2 | 19.9% |
| Switzerland by 3+ | 15.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wales | 9 | 1 | 0.58 | +0.42 |
 Switzerland | 18 | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
| 48' | Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 73' | Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Wales’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26' | Haris Seferović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WAL |
| 2 | 45' | Haris Seferović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +8% WAL |
| 3 | 48' | Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% WAL |
| 4 | 48' | Breel-Donald Embolo scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +29% SUI |
| 5 | 56' | Daniel James didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUI |
| 6 | 73' | Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +37% WAL |
| 7 | 88' | Gareth Frank Bale didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SUI |
| 8 | 89' | Breel-Donald Embolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% WAL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wales 13% · draw 23% · Switzerland 64%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Wales
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Switzerland by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Wales 13% · draw 24% · Switzerland 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal