Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 13, 2021
Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine: who deserved to win?
Netherlands beat Ukraine 3–2, and the replays lean Netherlands’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Ukraine, 2 end level. Netherlands made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 3 | 1.43 |
 Ukraine | 2 | 0.59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Netherlands lucky · −26 Ukraine
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Netherlands win 6, 2 end level, Ukraine win 2.
- 1 NED 1 UKR 0
- 2 NED 1 UKR 0
- 3 NED 2 UKR 1
- 4 NED 2 UKR 0
- 5 NED 3 UKR 1
- 6 NED 3 UKR 0
- 7 NED 1 UKR 1
- 8 NED 0 UKR 0
- 9 NED 1 UKR 3
- 10 NED 0 UKR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Netherlands win 61%, 25% end level, Ukraine win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Netherlands by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Netherlands by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Netherlands by 2 | 19.5% |
| Netherlands by 1 | 28.3% |
| Draw | 24.9% |
| Ukraine by 1 | 10.5% |
| Ukraine by 2 | 3.0% |
| Ukraine by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Netherlands | 15 | 3 | 1.43 | +1.57 |
 Ukraine | 7 | 2 | 0.59 | +1.41 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shot | 0.36 |
| 51' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 57' | Wout Weghorst scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 74' | Andriy Yarmolenko scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 78' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 84' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Netherlands’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Andriy Yarmolenko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% NED |
| 2 | 4' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +9% UKR |
| 3 | 39' | Denzel Dumfries didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% UKR |
| 4 | 51' | Georginio Wijnaldum scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +24% NED |
| 5 | 57' | Wout Weghorst scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +11% NED |
| 6 | 74' | Andriy Yarmolenko scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +8% UKR |
| 7 | 78' | Roman Yaremchuk scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +38% UKR |
| 8 | 84' | Denzel Dumfries scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +43% NED |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Netherlands 61% · draw 24% · Ukraine 15%
- Final margin
- Netherlands by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Netherlands
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Netherlands by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Netherlands 61% · draw 25% · Ukraine 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Netherlands win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal