Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 14, 2021
Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic: who deserved to win?
Czech Republic beat Scotland 2–0, but the replays call it even: Czech Republic win 3 of 10, Scotland 4, 3 end level. Scotland made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Scotland | 0 | 1.73 |
 Czech Republic | 2 | 0.81 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Czech Republic lucky · −54 Scotland
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Scotland win 4, 3 end level, Czech Republic win 3.
- 1 SCO 1 CZE 0
- 2 SCO 2 CZE 1
- 3 SCO 3 CZE 1
- 4 SCO 3 CZE 0
- 5 SCO 0 CZE 0
- 6 SCO 1 CZE 1
- 7 SCO 3 CZE 3
- 8 SCO 0 CZE 2
- 9 SCO 3 CZE 4
- 10 SCO 1 CZE 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Scotland win 41%, 27% end level, Czech Republic win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Czech Republic by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Scotland by 3+ | 7.1% |
| Scotland by 2 | 11.9% |
| Scotland by 1 | 21.9% |
| Draw | 27.2% |
| Czech Republic by 1 | 19.0% |
| Czech Republic by 2 | 9.1% |
| Czech Republic by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scotland | 19 | 0 | 1.73 | −1.73 |
 Czech Republic | 10 | 2 | 0.81 | +1.19 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Patrik Schick scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 51' | Patrik Schick scored from a shot | 0.01 |
| 61' | Lyndon Dykes didn’t score from a shot | 0.47 |
When it happened
Scotland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Lyndon Dykes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% CZE |
| 2 | 31' | Andrew Robertson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% CZE |
| 3 | 31' | John McGinn didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CZE |
| 4 | 41' | Patrik Schick scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +28% CZE |
| 5 | 47' | Jack Hendry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% CZE |
| 6 | 51' | Patrik Schick scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +13% CZE |
| 7 | 61' | Lyndon Dykes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +6% CZE |
| 8 | 65' | Lyndon Dykes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +3% CZE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Scotland 35% · draw 26% · Czech Republic 39%
- Final margin
- Czech Republic by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for Czech Republic
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Scotland by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Scotland 41% · draw 27% · Czech Republic 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Czech Republic win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France
- Hungary 0–3 Portugal Jun 15, 2021 · replay 96% for Portugal