luckadjusted
Euro Final · 2024

Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 15, 2021

France 1–0 Germany: who deserved to win?

France beat Germany 1–0, but the replays lean toward Germany: 4 wins in 10 to France’s 2, 4 end level. Germany made the better chances: 0.8 expected goals to 0.5. An own goal helped France.

Full time

GoalsxG
France 1 0.45
Germany 0 0.83

June 15, 2021 · Allianz Arena · Referee: Carlos del Cerro Grande

Luck index +57 France lucky · −57 Germany

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. France win 2, 4 end level, Germany win 4.

  1. 1 FRA 1 GER 0
  2. 2 FRA 1 GER 0
  3. 3 FRA 0 GER 0
  4. 4 FRA 1 GER 1
  5. 5 FRA 1 GER 1
  6. 6 FRA 0 GER 0
  7. 7 FRA 0 GER 2
  8. 8 FRA 1 GER 2
  9. 9 FRA 0 GER 1
  10. 10 FRA 1 GER 2

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

France win 23%, 40% end level, Germany win 36%. The line is what actually happened: France by 1.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
France by 3+0.8%
France by 24.7%
France by 117.8%
Draw40.5%
Germany by 125.1%
Germany by 28.6%
Germany by 3+2.6%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
France400.45−0.45
Germany1000.83−0.83

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

France’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while France was ahead in it, below while Germany was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 15' Paul Pogba didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance +5% GER
2 19' Own goal by nan, for FranceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full +25% FRA
3 21' Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance +4% FRA
4 37' İlkay Gündoğan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance +4% FRA
5 41' Kai Havertz didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance +3% FRA
6 51' Adrien Rabiot didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance +2% GER
7 53' Serge Gnabry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +5% FRA
8 55' Thomas Müller didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% FRA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

France 20% · draw 38% · Germany 42%

Final margin
France by 1
Luck in goals
1.2 for France
Luck-adjusted margin
Germany by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
France 23% · draw 40% · Germany 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). France win 43% of replays (a draw counted as half).

All matchday 1 matches, 2020 · France · Germany

More from matchday 1, 2020

Every match of matchday 1, 2020