Matchday 1 · Euro 2020 · June 15, 2021
Hungary 0–3 Portugal: who deserved to win?
Portugal beat Hungary 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Portugal win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Portugal made the better chances: 2.7 expected goals to 0.2.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Portugal about even · −4 Hungary
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hungary win 0, 1 ends level, Portugal win 9.
- 1 HUN 1 POR 1
- 2 HUN 0 POR 6
- 3 HUN 0 POR 5
- 4 HUN 0 POR 4
- 5 HUN 0 POR 4
- 6 HUN 0 POR 3
- 7 HUN 0 POR 2
- 8 HUN 1 POR 3
- 9 HUN 0 POR 2
- 10 HUN 0 POR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Hungary win 1%, 6% end level, Portugal win 93%. The line is what actually happened: Portugal by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hungary by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Hungary by 2 | 0.1% |
| Hungary by 1 | 1.1% |
| Draw | 5.8% |
| Portugal by 1 | 14.8% |
| Portugal by 2 | 20.2% |
| Portugal by 3+ | 58.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hungary | 5 | 0 | 0.20 | −0.20 |
 Portugal | 11 (1 pen) | 3 | 2.68 | +0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 42' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
| 83' | Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 86' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 91' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro scored from a shot | 0.80 |
When it happened
Hungary’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% HUN |
| 2 | 8' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% HUN |
| 3 | 29' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% HUN |
| 4 | 39' | Diogo José Teixeira da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% HUN |
| 5 | 42' | Cristiano Ronaldo dos Santos Aveiro didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 34% chance | +10% HUN |
| 6 | 46' | Kléper Laveran Lima Ferreira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% HUN |
| 7 | 68' | Roland Sallai didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% POR |
| 8 | 83' | Raphaël Adelino José Guerreiro scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +42% POR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hungary 0% · draw 1% · Portugal 99%
- Final margin
- Portugal by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.4 for Portugal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Portugal by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Hungary 1% · draw 6% · Portugal 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Portugal win 96% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 1, 2020
- Turkey 0–3 Italy Jun 11, 2021 · replay 89% for Italy
- Denmark 0–1 Finland Jun 12, 2021 · replay 17% for Finland
- Belgium 3–0 Russia Jun 12, 2021 · replay 85% for Belgium
- Wales 1–1 Switzerland Jun 12, 2021 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Austria 3–1 North Macedonia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 69% for Austria
- England 1–0 Croatia Jun 13, 2021 · replay 66% for England
- Netherlands 3–2 Ukraine Jun 13, 2021 · replay 74% for Netherlands
- Poland 1–2 Slovakia Jun 14, 2021 · replay 28% for Slovakia
- Spain 0–0 Sweden Jun 14, 2021 · drawn; replay 20% draws
- Scotland 0–2 Czech Republic Jun 14, 2021 · replay 46% for Czech Republic
- France 1–0 Germany Jun 15, 2021 · replay 43% for France